Philip Botha Anchor Capital The Year Ahead nanoxia deep silence 4 micro case

December capped an incredibly challenging year anoxie définition for global investors. The S&P 500 index had its second-worst month (-9.2% mom) since the great depression resulting in its worst year (-6.2% yoy) since 2008. Meanwhile, the MSCI world equity index ended the year down 10.4%. It was also the first time in many years that all major global asset classes produced a negative real return. Emerging markets (ems) seemed to bear the brunt of the risk-off environment throughout the year which meant that it was another very disappointing 12 months for investors on the JSE. The FTSE JSE all share index closed 2018 with a negative total return of 14.3%, which is particularly painful given that over a four-year period it has produced a paltry annualised total return of 4.6%.


Numerous factors conspired to create negative global sentiment, especially in the last quarter of 2018. Global growth prospects, and the related policy responses from central banks, are typically the biggest driver of stock markets. While growth anxiety attack meaning in hindi is likely to slow this year, we still believe a +/-3.5% global GDP growth rate in 2019 is enough to drive reasonable equity earnings growth, yet market behaviour seems to suggest a far worse outcome. This is probably due to the lack of confidence in the antics of US president donald trump. After being such a positive catalyst for markets in 2017, last year was the opposite anoxic tank mixer and the US stock market is now trading at levels below those when the dramatic US tax cuts were implemented. Trumponomics dominated headlines for most of the year causing wild swings in various markets globally. From an unholy matrimony with north korea to picking a trade fight with china over years of stolen intellectual property to a forced US government shutdown and finally, capped off, by a very public spat with US federal reserve (fed) chairman jerome powell over his monetary policies, 2018 was far from predictable.

After a year of negative returns, accompanied by positive earnings growth, markets are dramatically cheaper than they were this time last year. The extent of the derating varies across the different markets but US markets, for example, have seen their ratings drop by around 30% (-5% return and 25% earnings growth). Although one could argue that the market was expensive a year ago (with a lot of the earnings growth being anoxia vs hypoxia “once-off” in nature due to trump’s tax cuts), expectations for 2019 are still for positive US earnings growth of around 8%-9%. This implies a 12-month forward P/E multiple of 14.6x, which is the cheapest in six years and below the 10-year mean. Excluding the highly rated technology shares, this multiple comes down to just over 13x. The FTSE JSE all share index’s derating has been less pronounced over a longer period, but the index currently trades at a forward multiple of 11.9x – well below the 10-year mean of 12.9x.

While it is widely expected that US growth will slow in the year ahead, we believe that it is highly unlikely that 2019 will see the US economy moving into a recession. As we know though, mr market looks forward and as the year progresses the focus will shift anoxia cerebral sintomas to 2020. For now, all evidence points to an economy that is in very good shape and the longer that continues, the more supportive it should prove for equity market valuations.

The pace and duration of the current rate-hiking cycle has been keenly debated by market participants over the last two years, with fears that if the fed hikes too quickly, economic growth will stall pushing the US into a recession sooner than anticipated. Part of the fed’s mandate is to ensure that the US economy doesn’t overheat, leading to inflation above the target level. So far, in this hiking cycle, we believe that the fed has hiked gradually and nanoxia deep silence 4 review responsibly in-line with growth conditions in the economy and we don’t see any reason for this to change now. As mentioned above, it has become somewhat of a contentious issue between the president and the fed – trump has stopped just short of blaming the fed for the poor market performance last year, threatening to fire powell as a result. Despite the finger pointing, it certainly isn’t part of the fed’s mandate to ensure that equity markets rise. Our expectation is that the fed will hike once or twice more (by 25bps each time) in the year ahead but hypoxic brain injury mri images, based on the slowing economic growth that we alluded to above, the fed is expected to then pause and wait for further signs from the economy. Historically, this has led to a weakening of the US dollar which has been generally positive for risk assets and particularly nanoxia project s build ems. While the backdrop for EM investors was ghastly last year, the stars could well be aligning this year for an environment in which ems lead the charge.

Undoubtedly, the escalation of the trade war throughout last year has weighed on investor risk appetite and for good reason – recent data out of china has shown a marked slowdown in the country’s economic growth which is largely being attributed to uncertainty around trade. As the second-biggest economy in the world and having contributed roughly 50% of global growth following the global financial crisis (GFC), china is crucial to the global growth outlook. As trade talks between the US and china are set to resume later this week, we believe that sanity will eventually prevail which would come as a welcome relief and should be a major boost anxiety meaning in hindi symptoms to equity markets around the world. Once again, ems are likely to benefit the most from this outcome.

The eurozone has been, and remains, somewhat of a basket case over the past five years. Any sign of positive economic growth has been overshadowed by the populist rhetoric that has emerged from certain countries in the region. The latest country to join the fray halfway through last year was italy and, unlike greece a few years before, the italian economy is the fourth-largest in the zone so any stress hypoxic anoxic brain injury recovery to its balance sheet could well send shockwaves across the region. Outside of this, brexit is an ongoing saga and two-and-a-half years on it seems as though we are no closer to knowing what the outcome (and the ramifications) of brexit is likely to be.

South africa (SA) is in a significantly stronger position than a year ago, albeit off a very low base. 2018 saw negative GDP growth in the first half, with a rebound above 2% in 3Q18. Political rhetoric is likely to dominate the headlines for the next few months leading up to the elections, but our base-case expectation is for the ANC to win the election with enough of a margin to empower president cyril ramaphosa to continue his reforms. Inflation is unlikely to force the SA reserve bank’s (SARB’s) hand and, given the global causes of hypoxia at birth context, interest rates may well have peaked or come close to peaking. An increase in business confidence should see increased investment. While SA’s structural problems remain, 2019 should be a better year than 2018 for local companies.

2018 put most investors in a bad mood and levels of anxiety were, and remain, high. However, history is on our side in 2019 – since the 1950s, every year the S&P 500 de-rated by more than 1x, the average return the following year was 16%. In addition, on only two occasions was the return negative the following year. Global markets are around 30% cheaper than they were a year ago and many of the current headwinds can be addressed by political leaders. We believe it would be in their interests to act in a manner that would be positive anxiety attack cure for reasonable economic growth. In our view, markets are acting with extreme risk aversion and are discounting an outcome worse than what will materialise. The annual compound return from the S&P 500 over the last four years is 4.4% – less than half of the long-term average. This dispels the myth that we are at the end of a rampant bull run; there has been very little euphoria, with the market becoming progressively cheaper in recent years. The prospects for a positive 2019 have improved given the sell-off in the last quarter of 2018. EMs could outperform in this scenario and this will be positive for SA. Current conditions are conducive to volatility, but we believe that investors who keep cool heads and hypoxic brain damage after cardiac arrest stay invested through 2019 will be rewarded with meaningful returns.